Candidates use big money to jump ahead in polls

TALLAHASSEE - Two months ago, Rick Scott and Jeff Greene were virtually unknown to Florida voters.

Today, they stand on the precipice of winning their party's nominations in the biggest races in this year's Florida elections, a new poll suggests.

Running self-financed campaigns the likes of which have never been seen before in Florida, Scott, a Republican running for governor, and Greene, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate, now hold double-digit leads with less than four weeks to go until the primary election, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

Scott has already spent nearly $25 million of his own money and Greene nearly $8 million on relentless advertising campaigns that have boxed-in their veteran opponents in what is shaping up as the year of the anti-incumbent. They have also been able, so far, to fend off tough questions about how they made the fortunes that are funding their campaigns.

"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front-runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Scott, a former Columbia Healthcare/HCA CEO, leads Bill McCollum, the state's attorney general, 44 percent to 31 percent, while wealthy real estate investor Jeff Greene was ahead of U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek 33 percent to 23 percent in the race for the Democratic Senate nomination.

Making matters worse for the one-time frontrunners McCollum and Meek, 55 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed said their minds were made up. After a year of campaigning, 55 percent of Democrats said they have not heard enough about Meek to form an opinion of him.

"Obviously the messages that Scott and Greene have been able to send to voters through record television spending has been effective," Brown continued. "They're a little bit different, but there's a lot in common. ... This is a year in which being a long-time elected official is not necessarily an asset."

Previous incarnations of self-financed campaigns have usually been dogged by the candidate's lack of government experience. But Scott and Greene are running in a year when ire at government is running high nationally, Brown said.

"Florida may be a peninsula, but it's not an island," he said. "Voters here are no different than the rest of the country."

Though both face uphill climbs with voters set to go to the polls in about a month, McCollum may be in more trouble than Meek, Brown said. Anger at the Democratically controlled federal government means Republicans are even more likely to be receptive to Scott's "outsider" message than Democrats, though Greene has clearly gained traction too.

"If you look at the question of what do you want in a governor, somebody with long years of government experience or an outsider, the outsider wins more than 2-to-1," Brown said. "Of the two, clearly Scott's the outsider. In fact, the outsider wins more than Scott is winning, but that's an image and a theme that's very popular this year."

Perhaps a saving grace for Meek is there are more undecided voters in his race than McCollum -- 35 percent compared to 23 percent. Additionally, more Democratic voters say they might change their mind -- 54 percent -- than say their mind is made up -- 43 percent.

But much like Scott, Greene is in a commanding position in the race, Brown said.

"All those caveats aside, today you would much rather be in Rick Scott and Jeff Greene's shoes than Kendrick Meek and Bill McCollum's," Brown said. "To reverse the momentum, McCollum and Meek will need to change the dynamics of the race, and that means they are going to have to get to voters with a message that resonates. Florida isn't Vermont. You can't knock on doors and meet all the voters."